Scottsdale Real Estate

June 2011 Housing Market Reports

2011-07-19T14:23:00.000-07:00

The June 2011 housing market reports for Maricopa County and its cities have been posted on our website. You can view local market statistics, trends, charts, and commentary from various reliable sources within the housing industry.

Real estate is local. National facts and figures may not pertain to the Phoenix area. What’s happening in one part of the country may be very different than what is happening here. Even what is happening in one part of the Valley may be very different than what is happening in another part of the Valley. Keep up with the local Phoenix area (particularly the Northeast Valley) real estate market by visiting our website.

We are currently in a “seller’s market” with less than a 4 months supply of inventory of homes for sale. Even so, the news media continue to talk about the forthcoming “shadow inventory”, which in fact has been shrinking steadily since the end of last year in the Phoenix area. Click here to see an easy-to-read chart

So, what does this mean for buyers and sellers? Housing prices should start to go up. Prices may remain stagnant for awhile until the job market improves, but eventually (some experts predict by the end of this year) the law of supply and demand will kick in and housing prices will rise.

Please click on the links below to see:

Maricopa County Housing Market Updates

AZ Real Estate & Business News

Our Listings for Sale

Our Listings for Lease

Search for Listings on the Actual, Live MLS System!

If you have any questions or would like any help, call Pete at (480) 229-6468

Are Prices Going Up or Down?

2011-07-15T17:09:00.002-07:00

From The Cromford Report - July 9, 2011

Are Prices Going Up or Down?

I don't think we have ever had such a confusing set of pricing data so it's not surprising that opinions on price direction are all over the map. Even the facts are all over the map, which is a much rarer condition.

I'm going to wade into the issue and try to explain what I see going on. Hopefully it will shed light rather than adding to the confusion.

Before I start, let me make it clear that market direction and price direction are not the same thing. Sometimes the market gets worse while prices rise. This happened between April 2005 and August 2007. Throughout this period the market deteriorated - supply was increasing and demand falling and although prices reached a peak in June 2006 they did not start to decline significantly until September 2007 (see here). In contrast, since November 2010, when the market was in poor shape, supply has been falling while demand has been rising, but prices have shown little to no interest in responding by moving higher.

Nevertheless the improvement in market conditions is very substantial. Let's look at some key indicators for all areas & types:

1.The Cromford Market Index™ is higher now than at any time since October 2005.

2.The inventory of active listings is lower now than during the buoyant market of July 2003 and a far larger proportion of the current inventory has a contingent contract than was the case in 2003.

3.Monthly sales rates are setting new record highs.

4.Recent contract ratios are in the low to mid 90's, the highest we have seen since September 2005.

5.Listing success rates are approaching 75%, the highest recorded since October 2005.

6.Pending foreclosures and REO inventories are declining faster than at any time since 2005.

7.Foreclosures are off to a very slow start in the first week of July.

I could go on...

But let's get back to prices. The first thing to point out is that much depends how you measure them. First we have to choose between averages and medians. Why do we have two different measures? Because neither is entirely satisfactory. Average price, which you obtain by adding all the money spent on homes and dividing by the number of homes sold, can sometimes be unduly influenced by a relatively small number of large and expensive luxury homes. So instead, analysts often refer to the median sales price which is hardly affected by luxury homes at all. The median sales price is the price of the home that sits half-way between the lowest and the highest priced homes when you arrange them in an ordered list by price. You can add fifty multi-million dollar luxury homes and the median sales price won't move much, and possibly not at all. The disadvantage of the median sales price is that if you have a huge number of extremely cheap homes being snapped up by bargain hunters, it can drop to alarmingly low levels completely unrelated to the value of the bulk of the houses in the area. This is what happened in the first half of 2009 when investors were snapping up low-priced REOs in West Phoenix so fast that the median sales price for the City of Phoenix fell to $60,000 in March 2009 from $95,000 in January. By October 2009 it had recovered to $100,000. So while the median is insensitive to the high end it is sometimes over-sensitive to bargain buying at the bottom of the market.

It follows that we have to treat both average and median sales prices with a good deal of caution. At the Cromford Report we tend to focus on average sales price per sq. ft. which dilutes the disproportionate effect of luxury homes a little, but certainly not completely. It also goes a long way to avoid the problems associated with medians when REOs are selling like hot cakes. However $/SF is still highly susceptible to changes in the market mix, or "blend" as Tom Ruff likes to call it. This is especially true of changes in the blend at the high end of the market.

Today the average $/SF for monthly sales across all areas & types fell to a new extreme low of $80.32. We know it was $84.11 on June 9, so that's a big drop of 4.5% in a single month. Yet the monthly median sales price went up by 1.8% over the same period. Apparently prices are going up and down at the same time. Hitting a new bottom, at the same time as rising. Can this be true? You see what I mean about the facts being all over the map?

The facts are not really to blame. We must remember that averages and medians are not only different, they are not even closely related and often move in different directions, especially over short periods like months. It is only over the long term that they tend to follow similar trends.

To find out what has really happened, let's break down sales into 5 broad price ranges to see if we can detect what changed in the 30 days between June 9 and July 9.

List Price Range, Sales per Month June 9, Sales per Month July 9, % Change in Sales per month, Monthly Avg $/SF June 9, Monthly Avg $/SF July 9, % Change Monthly Avg $/SF

Under $100K 4,488 4,539 +1.1% $43.48 $42.88 -1.4%

$100K to $200K 3,325 3,560 +7.1% $71.48 $71.14 -0.5%

$200K to $400K 1,547 1,607 +3.9% $104.28 $102.63 -1.6%

$400K to $800K 406 446 +9.8% $154.00 $154.39 +0.2%

Over $800K 154 121 -22.4% $279.92 $238.51 -14.8%

Voila! The problem jumps out at us. It's in the range over $800,000.

The average $/SF in the price range above $800,000 fell nearly 15%. This is very unusual. Sales volume also fell over 22%. The average sales price for homes listed over $800,000 fell nearly 20%. This drop in volume and price from the luxury home sector had a huge effect on the overall average sales price and the average price per sq. ft, but it had no effect on the median sales price. Remember that the median sales price is essentially immune to any changes in the luxury sector. In fact the median sales price improved because of the growth in the price ranges between $100K and $800K.

Let's home in on the price ranges over $800,000 and see if we can identify more detail about the price changes

List Price Range, Sales per Month June 9, Sales per Month July 9, % Change in Sales per month, Monthly Avg $/SF June 9, Monthly Avg $/SF July 9, % Change Monthly Avg $/SF

$800K to $1M 44 49 +11.4% $192.30 $184.16 -4.2%

$1M to $1.5M 51 37 -27.4% $231.18 $236.26 +2.2%

$1.5M to $2M 25 24 -4.0% $281.38 $243.26 -13.5%

$2M to $3M 18 8 -55.4% $356.33 $365.48 +2.6%

Over $3M 16 3 -81.2% $428.08 $451.17 +5.4%

Now we can see that average pricing for luxury homes did NOT really fall by 15%. In fact the monthly average $/SF in 3 of the 5 sectors went up. The main cause of the large fall in average $/SF was the huge drop off in sales volumes over $2M - down from 34 to 11. Buyers of high end luxury homes had been active during the spring and seemed to have stopped buying as soon as the hot weather set in. The sudden absence of 23 sales over $2 million has a huge effect on average price and $/SF measurements, not just on the luxury sector, but on the market as a whole.

So where are we really?

Well from my perspective, prices aren't really going up or down much at all. They are still bumping along in essentially the same price range they have been in since October 2010. In situations like this, changes in the blend can make all the difference in whether the average or median goes up, down or stays flat. Our advice is not to pay too much attention to these movements. They will gain their rightful insignificance over time.

When a real price trend forms, we will know about it for sure, because all the price indicators will then be moving in the same direction with obvious momentum.

And when that happens you will hear about it here first.

Note: By the way, you may have noticed that we did not use median sales prices in reviewing price ranges. You may also be wondering why. It's because median sales prices offer no useful information at all when applied to a price range. The price range has already been limited by definition so all you will discover is that the median sales price is pretty much in the middle of each selected price range. It will stay in roughly the same spot no matter what happens to the market. Hence our advice is: don't waste any time calculating medians when dealing with price ranges. Averages are not much better. You really need to study the average price per sq. ft. (or median price per sq. ft.) if you want to derive useful pricing information about price ranges. An alternative approach is to create ranges by living space sq. ft. instead - if you do this then median price and average price become meanignful measures again.

July 2 - Market Summary for the Beginning of July

2011-07-09T15:28:00.000-07:00

What an amazing month was June!

According to the current ARMLS data, 2,216 homes closed on June 30 across all areas and types, the largest total we have ever recorded for a single day. It beat the previous record set on June 30, 2004 by nearly 57%! Not only that, but the total for the calendar month of June was 11,141, also a new all time record for sales through ARMLS. We know that the total sales recorded by the counties may have been a little higher during the summer of 2005 because so many transactions were completed outside of ARMLS in those days (mainly new homes and FSBOs). However in June's total we are not including the homes purchased at trustee sales which were very few in 2005 and likely numbered over 1,500 last month. However you look at it, June 2011 sales volume was enormous.

The make-up of these ARMLS sales was also exceptional. Short sales and pre-foreclosures totaled 3,057 across Greater Phoenix, up 49% from May. Lender owned properties were up only 3.4% at 4,508, while normal sales were up only 3.8% at 3,416. These three counts don't quite add up to 11,141 because there were 160 "out-of-area" sales too, lying beyond the borders of Greater Phoenix.

Because so many of these closed transactions were short sales, we have to expect some volatility in these numbers over the next few weeks. The flexmls system automatically closes pending transactions when their COE date is reached. Sometimes a snag occurs in real life and a sale fails to close when expected and has to be manually reversed later. This is far more likely to happen with short sales than other types because of the large number of approvals and documents needed to successfully close escrow. As usual our sales counts will be constantly monitored and corrected as newer statistics emerge on a daily basis.

The exceptional number of short sales had another impact. With normal sales dropping from 34% to 31% the monthly average price per sq. ft. fell just under 1% from $82.55 to $81.75 between June 1 and July 1. REO pricing per sq. ft. went up 1.0% and normal pricing went up 1.1%, but short sales and pre-foreclosure pricing went down a huge 4.7% across Greater Phoenix.

Here are some key figures for all areas & types:

Monthly Sales: 11,141 is 13% higher than May 2011 and 21.7% higher than in June 2010, when sales numbers were still getting a boost from the government tax credit.

Pending Listings: 12,224 on July 1, down 7.9% from June 1 but up 16.1% compared with July 1, 2010.

Active Listings: 28,837 on July 1, down 8.0% from June 1 and down 30.0% compared with July 1, 2010.

So supply continues to drop while demand is extremely strong. However, during the summer months we expect demand to remain much stronger among investment buyers than among regular buyers. Particularly at the upper end, buying interest tends to fall off during the third quarter. For example in the range above $3,000,000 there were only 3 homes under contract on July 1 whereas there were 11 on June 1. If this trend happens in 3Q 2011 we could see average prices fall due to the changing mix favoring the lower end of the market. It seems counter-intuitive that prices could weaken when supply is dropping fast and demand is so strong. However we must remember that public sentiment toward housing is still very negative and most people have not noticed the change in the balance of the market. In late 2005 and the first half of 2006, demand was weak and supply growing like Topsy, but prices continued to rise and were still extremely high at the end of 2006 because public sentiment toward housing remained very positive until the moment prices could no longer hold their artificially elevated position. At the moment the market balance is reversed but prices are hardly reacting at all. It is possible to theorize that the longer this situation lasts the sharper the ultimate correction is likely to be. We will have to wait and see.

There are those who still believe a large "shadow inventory" of distressed homes is looming over us and is going to cause another collapse in pricing. To address this question, we have developed a chart showing the "shadow inventory" counts for single family homes in Maricopa County. You can find it here. The chart shows that the "shadow inventory" has been declining since November 2010 and is relatively small compared to the monthly sales rate. Of course successful short sales contribute to this decline in the "shadow inventory". We did not include loans that are delinquent but not in foreclosure in our graph, but instead we recommend an expert on these: Jay Brinkmann, Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. You can find his press release on 1Q 2011 delinquencies here.

In contrast to the sales transactions, the foreclosure numbers for June were relatively unexciting. In Maricopa County we counted 4,477 new Notices of Trustee Sales, similar to both April and May but 27% below June last year. We counted 4099 trustee sales, the lowest monthly number since the Bank of America moratorium in December 2010. This total is also 14% lower than June 2010. Both counts are symptomatic of a foreclosure tsunami that peaked in 2009 and is now gradually ebbing.

From The Cromford Report

Monthly Average $/SF Overtakes the Annual Average

2011-07-09T15:14:00.000-07:00

June 23, 2011 - Monthly Average $/SF Overtakes the Annual Average

When a market is falling the monthly average $/SF for sales transactions is consistently lower than the annual average $/SF. When this ceases to be true we have a signal of a market that is attempting to turn round. On June 23 we see a monthly average of $83.85 and an annual average of $83.74. The difference is only slight but like the olive leaf carried by Noah's dove, this is a promising sign that price declines have abated.

We can certainly say that pricing for sales closed between May 23 and June 22, 2011 was on average higher, on a price per sq. ft. basis, than sales between June 23 2010 and June 22, 2011. We saw a similar thing occur in November 2009 confirming price rises that unfortunately did not hold once the tax credit ran out. This signal turned negative again in July 2010 and has stayed negative until the last three days.

If market pricing continues to improve this positive advantage for the short term average over the long term average will likely hold. Stock traders will recognize this kind of signal from their market. For stocks prices turn round frequently, but for residential real estate these signals tend to stay either positive or negative for months if not years.

From Cromford Report

Market Summary for the Beginning of May

2011-05-07T11:02:00.000-07:00

Market Summary for the Beginning of May
The Cromford Report May 3, 2011

Almost all the market indicators for Greater Phoenix have been strongly improving since the fourth quarter of 2010. Let's look at what has happened since then using the numbers for all areas and types of ARMLS residential resale listings.

•Active Listings (Total): Peaking on November 20 at 45,960, supply has since declined by over 25% to 34,364

•Active Listings (excluding those in AWC status): Peaked on November 21 at 39,813, has since declined by over 28% to 26,764

•Pending Listings: Reached a low point of 8,695 on January 2, has since risen 55% to 13,467

•Sales per Month: Reached a low point of 6,195 on January 31, has since risen 49% to 9,237 today.

•Sold % List Price: Reached a low point of 94.23% on December 31, has since risen to 95.57% today.

•Days Inventory: Peaked at 188 on November 21, has since fallen 28% to 135

•Months Supply: Rose to 6.8 on October 6, has since fallen 48% to 3.5

•Listing Success Rate: Reached a low point of 53% on January 31, has since risen to 69%

•Cromford Market Index: Hit a low of 85.2 on September 28, has since recovered strongly to 123.1

•Contract Ratio: Low point of 38.0 on January 1, now more than doubled to 78.7

All of these led us to conclude we were participating in a strong recovery, but until April sales prices stubbornly refused to follow suit and merely stabilized. However during the last ten days of April average price per sq. ft. started increasing in most (but not all) sectors.

We can now declare January 22, 2011 to be an official pricing bottom for the overall ARMLS market (all areas & types), with average sales price per sq. ft. at a low level ($80.74 per sq. ft.) we are unlikely to see again. As a reminder we experienced another initial bottom in $/SF prices on April 6, 2009, followed by a rebound that lasted over a year but collapsed along with the expiry of the tax credit incentive in 2010. Those waiting for the second bottom just missed it. It is not impossible that we see a third bottom at some point. However prices are unlikely to weaken while the indicators above continue to improve. At the moment we are looking at a W shaped recovery pattern and prices are starting to move up the second upward leg.

We should point out that the sales price per sq. ft. for lender-owned homes is still making fresh lows this week. This is not bringing down the overall $/SF because lender owned homes are gradually falling as a percentage of the total while normal sales are taking a greater share. For example in April 44.6% of sales were REOs compared with 46.8% in March. Normal sales increased their share from 34.0% to 35.7% while short sales, whose sales $/SF prices have been rising slightly, increased from 19.2% to 19.8%.

Those looking for bargain buys among the single family detached REOs should note that the list price average is now $71.22 per sq. ft. up from its low point of $68.77 per sq ft just six weeks ago on March 21. Short sale and pre-foreclosure single family detached list pricing has held steady for several months at around $79 to $80, while normal list prices for these homes have surged from $185.96 on September 26 to $196.53 today.

The recent increase in average sales pricing was quite sharp and was emphasized by greater participation from the luxury market. It is a little known fact that $/SF pricing for homes above $300,000 has been moving gently higher since October/November 2010 and sales volumes are on the rise. We should expect increased price volatility over coming months as the mix of sales varies. Remember that August is historically a weak month for pricing.

We will report which sectors have shown the greatest price gain shortly, along with those sectors that have yet to move higher.

In the world of foreclosures, the big news is the rapid fall of new notices of trustee sale. April delivered only 4,418 new notices in Maricopa County of which 4,200 were residential. This is the lowest monthly total since December 2007, nearly three and a half years ago. Completed trustee sales in Maricopa County fell back from the March high as expected, but at 4,709 (4,513 of which were residential) they far outstripped the new notices for the first time ever. This signals a significant phase change in the foreclosure tsunami as the activity starts to decline more rapidly. We are now seeing huge reductions in the pending foreclosure counts, with active notices at the end of April reading 32,203 which contrasts with 51,466 at the end of 2009 and 41,478 as recently as the start of 2011.

Not quite everything is good news. The monthly sales total for April is currently standing at 9,366. Normally this would be very impressive, but after March's 9,995 this suggests demand has reached a peak and fallen back just a bit, and this is reflected in the recent decline of the Cromford Demand Index™. It is the continued reduction in supply that is most encouraging and inventory now stands at just 3.5 months. To put that into context, the average between 2001 and 2011 has been 5.9 months with a minimum of 0.5 (in March 2005) and a maximum of 20.6 (in January 2008). It looks as though the Cromford Supply Index™ will shortly fall below 100 for the first time since November 2005. If you are buying right now, do not go out there expecting to find the widely reported "glut of foreclosed homes for sale". That disappeared several months ago.

The pending $/SF is also not behaving very well. This is due to the unusual market we are in. Short sales constitute 29% of pending listings but only 20% of sales and they tend to remain pending for long periods, often failing to close at all. Normal listings are only 27% of pending listings but comprise nearly 36% of sales, and they tend to close fast. These factors conspire to make the average list $/SF of pending listings significantly lower than the actual $/SF of monthly sales. The mix represented by the pending listings is not currently a true reflection of what will close escrow and that gets increasingly the case as you look out further into the future. Price forecasts (including ours) that are based on measuring pending listings are therefore coming in more pessimistic than they would normally and we recommend that you should be wary of them until the market reverts to a more normal situation.

The big question now is: will higher prices lead to weakening of demand or will the sharp reduction in supply cause buyers to get more aggressive in their offers to ensure they don't miss out on the last chance to capture homes at bargain prices?

For the answer - watch this space!

Increase in Home Sales

2011-04-20T14:13:00.000-07:00

Increase in Home Sales

04/15/2011 By: Heather Hill Cernoch

Freddie Mac forecasts a 5 percent increase in 2011 home sales over 2010, according to its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for April.

The report also contends that refinancing will likely account for a smaller share of loan applications later this year as wealthy borrowers decrease and mortgage rates increase.

“Expect to see a bit of spring in homes sales activity during the second quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist at McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.

Nothaft continued, “Sales contract signings for existing homes were up in February, positioning the market for a bounce up going into the traditional home-buying season.”

The expected pick-up in home sales is due to recent positive employment reports, the Market Outlook reveals. Unemployment declined for the fourth straight month to 8.8 percent, and net employment increased by 216,000 jobs. Real estate employment was up by 10,000 jobs since last November.

The report also calculates that the share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans will be 7 percent in 2011 compared to the 5 percent 2010 average.

Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic and housing and mortgage market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.

Market Summary for the Beginning of April

2011-04-06T14:28:00.000-07:00

The most impressive thing about the month of March 2011 was the huge unit volume of closed sales. We are currently showing 9,901 closed sales on ARMLS for all areas and types. That is the 5th highest monthly total ever recorded on ARMLS and the second highest sales volume ever for the month of March. The only months which have surpassed it were June 2005 (10,213), August 2005 (10,002), June 2004 (9,973) and March 2005 (9,949). Please see the long term sales chart to see how significant this number is.

Meanwhile demand is accelerating while supply is falling quickly. This is reflected in the Cromford Market Index™ and can be see here in graphical form.

Supply is falling in almost every geography and price range but is most noticeable at the price ranges below $150,000 and in the outskirts of the valley, particularly in Maricopa (city), Queen Creek, Anthem, Casa Grande and Buckeye, This largely due to enthusiastic buying of homes built in the last 15 years which can be found for sale at a discount of 70% or more compared with their price at the time of construction.

Trustee sales in Maricopa County hit a high number of 5,226 in March, due to the trustees catching up from the Bank of America moratorium in November last year. Notices of trustee sales were only modestly up from February at 5,397, which is not an impressive number given that March contained a lot more working days for lenders than February. As a result the number of homes pending foreclosure dropped sharply during March to the lowest number since March 2009.

Third parties buying at trustee sale made a new record with 1,379 purchases (26.4% of the auctions). This is by the far the largest number of properties ever purchased at trustee sale. Another 3,842 properties got no bids and went to the beneficiary to become REO inventory. This may help slow the fall in the REO inventory listed for sale of ARMLS.

Lenders seem to have noticed the enthusiasm of buyers and having allowed the average list $/SF of REOs to fall between April 1, 2010 ($87.56) and March 20, 2011 ($68.84), they are now increasing them again and the average list $/SF has popped up 3.5% in just the past 2 weeks. Asking prices for short sales and pre-foreclosures seem to have stalled at around $79 to $80 per sq. ft. Normal listings have been increasing in list price for some time, reaching a low of $185.93 on September 24 and rising by 4.5% over the last 6 months to hit $194.37 today.

While average sales prices are very slightly higher in March compared with January and February, there is still no clear sign of a significant trend forming. The median sales price has been stuck at $110,000 for three month now., again with no sign of a major move either up or down over the short term.

With the balance between supply and demand changing quite quickly for the better over the last four months, we are down to an overall inventory level of 4.2 months based on the monthly sales rate. This can be regarded as a "normal" reading for the time of year (it is below the 4.5 we measured in 2002 at the same point in our last "normal" year). This goes a long way towards explaining why prices have stabilized once again.

Currently the trend is for supply to fall further and demand to increase, and if this continues then at some point it is likely to lead to prices moving higher. How soon and how much, it is too early to say. However it is not too early to say that prices are unlikely to fall to any significant degree while this situation persists. Last year the disappearance of the tax credit at the end of April caused the market to deteriorate suddenly in May and pricing fell sharply between July and September. At the moment we see no indication of a similar interruption to the recovery process that is now under way.

© 2011 Cromford Associates LLC

The data used to create the Cromford Report™ is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround

2011-04-01T21:14:00.000-07:00

"Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround"

Mike Orr, The Cromford Report, March 17, 2011

Almost all the key market indicators turned negative at the end of the second quarter of 2010, and thus predicted the fall in pricing we experienced during the second half of the year. See our News Archive(on the Cromford Report) for the warnings we issued in June and July 2010.

The good news is that now we are seeing the opposite happen. Those same market indicators are turning positive, suggesting we are likely to see prices strengthen over the next six to nine months.

It is generally regarded as very tricky to call a market bottom (or top) at the time it is happening, but real estate is a relatively slow-changing market and several key indicators give us fair warning if we choose the right ones and track them on a daily basis. The indicators we like are:

1. The Cromford Market Index™ - This has been over 100 since late December and around 110 since January 23. Click here for the graph!

2. Days Inventory - Has been falling steeply since November 21, a strong signal that supply is tightening and getting even stronger since January.

3. Pending Listing Count - Grown from 8,695 on January 2 to 12,993 on March 16, indicating plenty of buying interest. Click here for the graph!

4. Contract Ratio - Having dropped to 38 at the beginning of January, has increased sharply to over 62 by mid March. This again confirms a strong swing in the balance away from supply and towards demand. This swing applies to REOs, short sales and normal listings.

5. Monthly Sales Volume - Weak during the second half of 2010, this suddenly strengthened in December 2010 and has been well above last year through the first quarter of 2011.

6. Listing Success Rate - Has jumped from 58% in February to 65% now.

7. Sales Price as a Percentage of List Price - The low point was 94.23% on December 31. We have now improved to 95.37%.

There are two important measures that have not made much progress yet - Pending $/SF and Monthly Sales $/SF. That is because pricing is always the last thing to turn round. Currently the low points are $81.55 for pending sales on March 10th and $80.60 for monthly sales on February 22. We can now see both of these edging tentatively upwards. We do not expect dramatic rises, but we believe the price weakness experienced between June 2010 and March 2011 is all but dissipated. If we do see further dips they are likely to be small and short term affairs.

We have already seen two low points for monthly sales $/SF - April 6, 2009 and February 22, 2011. We may see more yet, but based on today's trends this is fairly unlikely in the short term. Barring unforeseen catastrophe or significant external events (e.g. government action) we appear to have started the second upward leg of our W shaped recovery. Hopefully we are going to get a W shaped recovery and not experience a VW shaped one!

Nothing is certain in this world. So if this current trend weakens or fails to follow through - you can sure we will be the first to inform you in the News and Commentary section of the Cromford Report. We recommend that you use the RSS feed for that section so you get early notice of any new entries. If instead the current trend strengthens as we expect, then our confidence in the above market indicators will be even greater in the future.

Real estate price declines overshooting fundamentals?

2011-03-26T12:24:00.000-07:00

Real estate price declines overshooting fundamentals?

PMI: Income growth has outstripped home-price growth in most states

By Inman News, Thursday, March 17, 2011.

Home prices have fallen below fundamental values in more than half of U.S. states, overcorrecting from bubbles in some markets and dragged down by the recession in others.

That's the conclusion of analysts at mortgage insurer PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., who warn home prices during the next few years will vary "far more by location than usual."

PMI's monthly analysis of economic, housing and mortgage market conditions attempts to tackle the question, "Have house prices fallen by enough to be affordable again?" The answer to that question depends on where you live, PMI analysts said.

PMI looked at home prices relative to income at the state level, using 1995 as a baseline. Because of home-price declines during the bust, growth in per capita income has outstripped home prices in 35 states over that time frame. Home prices are trailing income growth by double-digit rates in 30 states, PMI said.

States that saw significant price appreciation during the boom but which have now seen prices overcorrect include Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and West Virginia, PMI said.

States that were largely immune to speculative bubbles but which have seen home prices dragged down below fundamentals by the recession include Arkansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming.

States where home prices still appear elevated relative to income include Alaska, California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Oregon, South Carolina and Washington, D.C.

PMI's analysis showed prices have returned to historical norms relative to income in Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

There are many ways to measure affordability, but PMI chose to compare home prices to income because over time they should grow at similar rates.

In states where home prices have outstripped income growth, it's possible that those prices can be supported if there are space constraints that preclude building more homes in desirable areas, the report noted.

In other cases, prices will have to fall further to bring house prices and incomes back into line. Because incomes are expected to rise over time, future price drops may be less than suggested by PMI's analysis.

"House prices will likely fall in some areas in the near term, while rising in others as the recovery gains traction in different markets at different times," the report concluded. "Each area's recovery will depend on local supply and demand fundamentals such as economic growth, the amount of distressed sales, and household formations -- likely augmented by how far above, or below, prices vary from incomes."

The report forecasts that home sales will pick up in 2011, especially in the second half of the year, thanks to an expected rise in job growth, increasing numbers of households, and low mortgage rates.

PMI economists project existing sales will grow by 8.7 percent in 2011, to 5.36 million units, while sales of new homes will climb 19.9 percent to 385,000 units. Home prices are likely to continue a seasonal decline for a few months before edging upward as sales increase, the report said.

2011-03-14T20:53:00.000-07:00

Market Summary for the Beginning of March

If you are watching average sales prices then you are probably bored - nothing much is happening at the moment. They are not going up or down, just wobbling around unsteadily like the Inception top, although they gave up around 12% between July and January.

However we don't advise watching prices right now. They are the very last indicator to turn round at both the top and bottom of a cycle. The indicators you should watch instead are behaving in very interesting ways at the moment. Most of these ways are very positive. Nothing is certain in this world but the current trends are pointing to another market recovery attempt, similar to the one we saw in 2Q 2009.

Supply

We measure supply using active listing counts. These are coming down fast in many (but not all) areas. The total number for all areas & types in ARMLS residential resale as of March 1 was 40,240. On February 1 this was 42,522 so we are down 5.6% in a single month. Last year on March 1, we had 42,139, so we are down 4.5% in 12 months. This latter number doesn't sound very impressive, but supply was growing last year from June through November, peaking at 45,960 on November 20. Supply has fallen by 12.5% since November 20 and this is a definite signal that overall supply is now on a strong downward trend.

Demand

We measure demand using two primary indicators - recent sales and pending listings - and we also keep a watchful eye on total listings under contract (i.e. pending plus AWC). At the moment we are recording 7,155 sales (all areas & types) during February 2011. This is 8.6% higher than January and 11.4% higher than February 2010. Not too shabby. In fact this is the second highest February sales total for ARMLS (Feb 2005 came top). Pending listings were 11,997 on March 1, up 13.6% from February 1 and 1.8% below March 1, 2010 when we in the grips of tax credit buying fever. These are good demand numbers.

Supply vs. Demand

Demand is strong and supply is falling, so that ought to be good for the market. However sentiment is still very negative after the double dip price drop during the second half of 2010 and it always take several months for an improvement in the market balance to be reflected in pricing.

Let us look at segments of the market to see where things are improving fastest.

Where Is Supply Going Down Fastest (over the last month)?

A. Special Listing Conditions (all types - Greater Phoenix):

• REO supply is down 15% - the main reduction is here!

• Short Sale & Pre-foreclosure supply is down 4%

• Normal supply is down 3%.....

copyright 2011 Cromford Report
Read entire article at http://www.cromfordreport.com/

The Case for Sunbelt Real Estate

2011-02-14T19:10:00.001-07:00

The Case for Sunbelt Real Estate

It's at times like this that you remember the reason there was a real estate boom in the Sunbelt in the first place.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704376104576122402089196310.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews

Market Summary for the Beginning of 2011

2011-01-15T17:19:00.000-07:00

Although we read plenty of gloomy news for the housing market in the various media, December was actually a surprisingly positive month for the Greater Phoenix residential market. Not in term of pricing, mind you, but remember that pricing is a lagging indicator. We need to watch supply and demand if we want to anticipate what will happen to prices down the road. The last month was surprisingly positive relative to expectations, including ours.

Not everything we study is good news of course, but the overall state of the market at the end of December is far better than at any time since the end of the tax credits last April.

Good News:

1. We are currently recording 8,378 sales in ARMLS (all areas & types) for December 2010. This is up 24% from November and up 13% from December 2009. This huge sales unit count shows that there is plenty of demand even though over-supply remains a problem. REO sales across greater Phoenix were up 31% month to month and 18% year on year. Short sales and pre-foreclosures were up 34% month to month and 17% year on year. Normal sales were up 10% month to month and 2% year on year.

2. Foreclosures remained very subdued during the month of December (compared with the last two years) with 5,731 new Notices of Trustee Sale (NOTS) in Maricopa County and 3,523 Trustee Deeds (TD) issued. The NOTS were the fewest since March 2008 and the TDs were somewhat higher than November 2010 but otherwise the lowest number since April 2009.

3. Normal sales pricing is on a strengthening trend.

4. Active listings on January 2 are 5.4% lower than on December 2.

5. The Cromford Market Index™ moved from 91.2 on December 1 to 101 on January 1.

Not So Good News:

1. All the sales closed in December depleted the pending sales a little are we started the year with 8847 pending listings, 7% lower than the start of 2010.

2. Overall sales pricing remains weak with average sales prices only 94.4% of list during December. For December 2009 this was 96.1% of list.

3. REO and short sales pricing are on a weakening trend.

Outlook:

Many people expect TDs to surge in January now that Bank of America has resumed trustee sales in Arizona. We very much doubt this will happen. Trustees cannot process the entire backlog overnight and in any case Bank of America has a history of being very slow to record Trustee Deeds and if we are to see a temporary spike this is most likely to occur in March 2011. We anticipate January will see a mild increase in TDs and no major change in NOTS, but of course we could be wrong.

In the short term, REOs and short sales are dominating the sales counts, so their weakening prices will probably overwhelm the improving prices for normal sales. The first two months of 2011 will therefore give us weak overall sales price numbers to report. However if January and February's sales counts remain elevated like December's, this will signal a significant resurgence in demand that will quickly eat into the excess supply that has built up since April 2010. Note the key use of the word "if". January and February are traditionally weak months for buying, but we need to watch closely to see if the market can sustain the positive momentum it gained during December.

We will track the Cromford Market Index™ to see if it can break through the 110 mark before the end of January. If it does this will mean we are likely to experience a busy buying season in the Spring.

Source: Cromford Reports

Perfect Eagle Mountain Golf Villa! See Virtual Tour!

2011-01-15T17:06:00.000-07:00

MLS # 4520086. Listed by Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, SFR.

Virtual Tour

View Details & Description of this Home

See more listings and all of our buyer & seller programs at http://www.showscottsdale.com/

DPR Realty LLC, 8341 E. Gelding Dr., Scottsdale, AZ 85260. Tel: 480-837-8068. Toll Free 1-800-285-1542, Ext 1238.

Have Down Payment, but Stuck in Appraisal Hell

2010-12-15T12:56:00.000-07:00

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40661715/ns/business-us_business/

Sales being lost as lenders adopt much tougher rules for homes' worth

By Linda Stern

Reuters

updated 12/14/2010 3:58:52 PM ET

WASHINGTON — Aaron and Beth Stiner are renters, but not by choice and not because they can't afford to buy a house. They had a move-up home in Phoenix selected and good credit scores. They even had buyers lined up for the home they were selling. Then they entered appraisal hell.

The first appraisal on their chosen home came in at $295,000, a figure that both the Stiners and the sellers agreed upon. The lender didn't like it, and ordered up a second appraisal. Based on comparable homes that were in a different neighborhood, the new appraisal came in $25,000 lower — too low to allow the loan to go through.

They switched lenders and got another appraisal that, at $290,000, would have allowed the deal to go through. Their new lender was skeptical, and ordered up another appraisal. At the same time, the home they were selling was appraised three times, with each subsequent valuation falling.

Four months later, the Stiners and their buyer both gave up. Together, they were out $1,600 for seven appraisals. "As a result, we are now renting our home out, and renting the home we wanted to buy," says Beth. "We were frustrated and we weren't going to keep doling out cash for new appraisals. It felt like a game."

But not a fun game. There are problems in appraisal land that transcend weak housing markets and debt-ridden borrowers, and that are causing home buyers and would-be refinancers to miss out on low rates and dream houses.

"There's been a pendulum swing in appraisals comparable to the one we've seen in mortgage credit, from foolishly lax to overly restrictive," said Walt Molony of the National Association of Realtors. He reported that as recently as October, one in 10 member agents said they'd had a contract canceled as a result of a low appraisal, 13 percent said they'd had a contract delayed, and 16 percent said they'd had a contract negotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low appraisal.

"We haven't seen anything like what we are facing today," said Mark Linne of Appraisal World, a company that provides automated valuation software and services to appraisal companies and lenders.

New and proposed federal rules governing appraisals, changes in the way appraisals are conducted, and a still uncertain housing market have hit the appraisal part of the process in a way that is adding to housing market instability.

Borrowers are watching their "locked in" low rates expire — while they pay for one appraisal after another. Lenders are afraid to trust the appraisals they get, and are ordering more and more of them. The appraisers themselves say they're being paid less to work faster in a more confusing market than they've ever faced.

"A lot of inappropriate demands are being made," says Patrick Gavin, the mortgage broker who was trying to find a loan for the Stiners. "Underwriters want more comparables. They want more narrative and more photos. Meanwhile the clock is tick tick ticking on your loan."

Lenders play defense

The lenders say they are just playing defense. "We believe the property in question was appropriately valued," said James Olecki, a spokesman for GMAC Mortgage, the Stiner's initial lender. GMAC uses an in-house staff of appraisers to review the independent appraisals they receive.

Wells Fargo, the lender that had been approached by the Stiner's would-be buyer, regularly asks for three appraisals and requires a "loan to value reduction" for properties located in declining markets, said Vickee Adams, a Wells Fargo spokeswoman. "Wells Fargo must ensure that the value of the collateral supports the loan amount."

The biggest issue for appraisers, lenders and ultimately, borrowers, is how to evaluate properties in neighborhoods with foreclosures, short sales, and not enough solid sales to provide comparable data. "They are appraising a market that is so volatile and different from anything they've ever seen," said Linne. "If you are an appraiser and one-third of the neighborhood is foreclosures, and another third is short sales, and another third is regular, how do you even determine what is fair market value?"

Brokers like Gavin contend that appraisers should mark up the value of homes when comparing them to foreclosures and short sales, because many of those distressed properties are in disrepair or are so complicated to buy that they command unrealistically low prices.

Further complicating the process, appraisers who for years mainly faced pressure to preserve deals, now are facing pressure in the other direction from lenders who want to make sure they have enough equity to cover them even if home prices fall further. Mortgage rates have been near record-low levels, and lenders don't want to commit to bargain rate deals unless they are a sure thing.

"We are requesting more comparables than we have in the past," said A. W. Pickel, an Overland Park, Kansas, mortgage banker and past president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers. "We used to take three, but now we're seeing four or five. Underwriters are looking carefully at how close those comparables are to the homes in question."

Pickel said lenders are typically asking for second appraisals when the mortgage amount involved is large or when the appraiser has significantly adjusted the comparable values upward to come up with a home's value. "And then we're generally going to go with the one that is lower," he said. Consumers who need the higher valuations to get their loans are just out of luck.

The new rules

The world of home appraisals changed on May 1, 2009, when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adopted the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. These new rules prohibited lenders from hand-picking appraisers. To comply with those rules, many lenders have started using appraisal management companies that afford them an arm's length relationship with the appraiser. The appraisal management companies hand out assignments to their participating appraisers on a random basis. And they get a significant slice of the appraiser's fee, cutting the amount that actually goes to the on-the-ground appraiser.

It's not an arrangement that traditional appraisers — who may have built long-term relationships with brokers and lenders — like. "They want appraisers to produce a product and we provide a professional service," complained Francois Gregoire, a Saint Petersburg, Florida, veteran appraiser. "And they want it turned around in 24 or 48 hours. All those personal relationships that I built over the years are out the window."

Gregoire, who has stopped doing mortgage appraisals because he says they are no longer profitable, asserts that the new rules are resulting in a reliance on appraisers who are inexperienced and willing to travel significant distances to conduct those home inspections. And that results in appraisals that are less sensitive to neighborhood nuance, and less useful to borrowers and lenders.

No amount of work will work

Home buyers and refinancers can't always fight the troubling appraisal. Sheila Krueger and her husband Paul Hennings, in Glendale, Arizona, lost a loan when the home they tried to buy appraised for $60,000, though they were willing to pay $70,000 for it. "No amount of work by our Realtor and my husband to show them how this was erroneous would make a difference," she said.

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Paul Hennings and his wife Sheila Krueger had to put in considerable work to buy this home.

Four months after putting in their contract on the home, Krueger and Hennings abandoned their hopes of getting an inexpensive Federal Housing Administration loan and closed with an investment loan instead. "We showed up with a check for $25,000 instead of one for $3,000. And now, instead of having $1,500 every month to put into the property, we need to hold onto it for the mortgage payment," said Sheila.

Of course, home owners and buyers aren't always the best judge of how much their property is worth. And more rules are forthcoming: The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation requires the Federal Reserve to protect appraisal independence with regulations that extend the intent of the 2009 code beyond Fannie and Freddie. The Fed's interim rules, issued in October and slated to go into effect in April, aren't very different from that 2009 code, Gregoire and other industry analyst have noted.

On December 2, several U.S. regulatory agencies issued new guidelines for appraisals used in mortgages which originate from federally regulated banks, along with a statement noting "financial institutions are responsible for selecting appraisers and people performing evaluations based on their competence, experience, and knowledge of the market and type of property being valued." The statement also noted that these guidelines might be rewritten once again, once the Fed's rules are made final.

In the meantime, pros are telling consumers to peer carefully over the shoulders of those appraisers. "It's important to look at the comparable sales that were used," says Linne. "If they don't think they are reflective of market, make the lender aware of that, and be more involved in the process."

If an appraisal comes in too low, the borrowers can appeal it, and order up (and pay for) another one. They still may not be able to get the loan they want, but at least they'll know they tried.

Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Mortgage Rates Seen Rising to 5.1% in 2011

2010-10-31T17:51:00.004-07:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303443904575578410336931010.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews

By AMY HOAK

ATLANTA—Mortgage rates may be as low as they will go, with the average 30-year fixed-rate home loan on course to rise after hovering for months at historically low levels.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to a 4.7% average in the first quarter of 2011, and climbing to 5.1% by the end of next year. That is barring any "blockbuster" announcement from the Federal Reserve next month, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the MBA, at the group's annual convention here.

The Fed has said it could take more policy actions to stimulate growth, and Mr. Brinkmann said that is likely to come in the form of an additional purchase of Treasury securities. But the market has already anticipated that, and the move has already been priced into current rates, he added.

Mr. Brinkmann said he expects a pickup in purchase originations next year, but 2011 volume for mortgages to buy a home will still only be roughly at its 2009 level. Refinance business, however, is expected to drop next year, as mortgage rates begin their rise from record lows.

Still, potential home-loan customers needn't jump too fast. While the industry group predicts a steady rise from 4.25% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan, the second lowest level it has ever recorded, even a rate of 5.1% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan is historically low.

At the conference, many mortgage bankers commented that business right now is doing well, due mainly to high refinance volume in the low-mortgage-rate environment. A large concern for them, however, has been what happens when all the refinance business dries up.

"If [interest rates] do bump up a bit, it's a big concern on the refinance side," said E. Todd Chamberlain, executive vice president for Regions Financial Corp., speaking on a panel at the convention. Those who have recently refinanced may be in the same homes—with the same loans—for a long time, unwilling to give up their very low rates by moving or refinancing, he said.

Total mortgage volume is expected to be nearly $1 trillion in 2011, down from an anticipated $1.4 trillion this year and nearly $2 trillion in 2009.

The industry is expected to originate an annual $480 billion in purchase mortgages by the end of this year and $626 billion next year; it is expected to originate $921 billion in refinance mortgages by the end of this year, which is expected to shrink to $370 billion next year.

The MBA forecast predicts home sales will rise slightly next year, after dropping in 2010 from 2009 levels. Sales of existing homes will finish 2010 about 8% lower than last year, but sales should rise 2% next year and 16% in 2012. And sales of new homes will finish this year 13% lower than 2009, but sales should rise from that low base by 20% next year and 40% in 2012.

"We also see some upward indication on prices" in many markets, Mr. Brinkmann said. Nationally, prices are expected to decline 1% next year, but that decline is heavily weighed down by severely troubled housing markets, including those in Florida and parts of California, he said.

Mr. Brinkmann said that there has been a large decline in household formation throughout the country, with many adults who would rather live on their own sharing a roof with parents or roommates due to financial reasons. Others might be marking time in crowded apartments, though their families are increasing in size and they would rather move to a larger space, he said.

Those people might relocate as soon as the economy improves and more jobs are created: "There is tremendous pent-up demand that is going to respond quickly to job growth," he said.

Offsetting that, however, are mobility trends. Homeowner mobility is down, partly because of diminished equity in homes and now also because of low interest rates—it is now going to be more difficult for people to move when it means they will be giving up a 4.5% interest rate on their mortgage, he said.

Write to Amy Hoak at amy.hoak@dowjones.com

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Economists Say Housing at Bottom

2010-10-17T17:18:00.000-07:00

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Economists Say Housing at Bottom

Economists Say Housing at Bottom

Beacon Economics analyzed home affordability and came away feeling optimistic.

Beacon Economics founding principal Christopher Thornberg, whose firm advises a variety of business clients, says the high level of affordability is likely to drive demand and reduce the stock of excess inventory, ultimately resulting in the need for new housing, a rise in prices, and a pickup in new construction.

"While prices may fluctuate modestly over the next several months, we believe the worst of the housing crisis is behind us," says Beacon Economics Research Manager Jordan G. Levine. "We expect prices to stabilize around current levels and likely be higher in the next 12 months."

Source: Beacon Economics (10/11/2010)

Maricopa County AZ Housing Market Update

2010-09-17T12:58:00.000-07:00

http://www.showscottsdale.com/home_page/housing_market_update/housing_market_update.php

August 2010 Overview - Single Family Homes

Number of new listings: 9,397
Total number of active listings: 30,643
Number of sold listings: 5,333
Average selling price: $186,820
Sale price to listing price ratio: 97%
Average days on market: 100
Number of months of inventory: 5.7

• 36% of sold listings were lender owned, 30% were short sales, and 34% were normal sales.
• The number of active listings had been gradually decreasing, however this number has been increasing for the past few months.
• The number of sold listings increased 2.2% from 2nd quarter 2009 to 2nd quarter 2010.
• The average selling price increased 7.0% from 2nd quarter 2009 to 2nd quarter 2010.
• Number of months of inventory is down slightly from the previous month. A 5-7 month supply is considered balanced. Less than 5 months is considered a “seller’s market”. More than 7 months is considered a “buyer’s market”.

Number of Months of Supply of Housing:
Ahwatukee 5.1
Apache Junction 5.3
Buckeye 4.6
Cave Creek 6.9
Fountain Hills 11.8
Paradise Valley 10.6
Peoria & Glendale 4.6
Phoenix - Camelback Corridor 9.4
Scottsdale 8.4
Luxury Homes ($1Million +) 22.1
East Valley 5.3
Northwest Valley 5.1
Southwest Valley 4.5
Valleywide 5.8

A Dream House After All

2010-09-16T11:38:00.002-07:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/opinion/02case.html

Highlights from The New York Times, Karl E. Case 9/1/2010 article:

...Do the math. Four years ago, the monthly payment on a $300,000 house with 20 percent down and a mortgage rate of about 6.6 percent was $1,533. Today that $300,000 house would sell for $213,000 and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20 percent down would carry a rate of about 4.2 percent and a monthly payment of $833. In addition, the down payment would be $42,600 instead of $60,000...

...housing has perhaps never been a better bargain, and sooner or later buyers will regain faith, inventories will shrink to reasonable levels, prices will rise and we’ll even start building again. The American dream is not dead — it’s just taking a well-deserved rest.

Finance Your Home Purchase

2010-08-08T15:52:00.000-07:00

5 Tips for Deciphering Your Home Loan’s Good-faith Estimate
Knowing how to read your good-faith estimate can help you save money on your home loan. Read
7 Homeowner Tax Advantages
When you’re evaluating how much home you can afford, make sure you factor in the tax advantages of homeownership. Read
4 Tips to Determine How Much Mortgage You Can Afford
By knowing how much mortgage you can handle, you can ensure that home ownership will fit in your budget. Read
7 Tips for Improving Your Credit
Here’s how to clean up your credit so you get the least-expensive home loan possible. Read
Find the Home Loan that Fits Your Needs
Understand which mortgage loan is best for you so your budget is not stretched too thin. Read

Visit houselogic.com for more articles like this.

Homes Will Sell if Priced Right; Foreclosures Have Impact

2010-08-07T19:20:00.005-07:00

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-07-29-homeprices29_CV_N.htm

Jumbo Loans Are Available

2010-07-31T19:08:00.000-07:00

Jumbo loans are making a come-back at attractive rates.

Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages are available at 80% loan-to-value for up to $1,500,000. Rates are 5.85% with no points or 5.45% with 1 point origination.

Adjustable rate mortgages are also available at 75% loan-to-value. A 5/1 ARM is 4.125% with no points or 3.875% with 1 point. A 7/1 ARM is 4.375% with no points or 4.125% with 1 point.

For more mortgage information please contact:

Alan Band
Core Mortgage
(480) 588-8758.

If you have any other real estate questions, please call Pete Shambreskis at (480) 229-6468.

New "Voice of Real Estate"

2010-05-31T11:36:00.002-07:00

STAT is a brand new ARMLS® initiative that gives Subscribers the most current market statistics. The STAT newsletter is billed as THE Numbers-fast. It will be published monthly in advance of other third party statistical publications that use dated numbers. STAT positions ARMLS in the Valley as the “Voice of Real Estate” and places Subscribers at the forefront of market intelligence for their buyers and sellers.

ARMLS also introduces the ARMLS Pending Price Index™ (ARMLS PPI) which predicts the direction of the market four months into the future based on pending sales in flexmls. No other third party can provide this prediction, because ARMLS is the sole possessor of pending data. Once again, Subscribers will be the only source of this information for their clientele.

STAT and the ARMLS PPI are delivered in a PDF format to allow Subscribers to print and use in listing presentations, or distribute via email to their customer database.

Click to access the May issue of STAT and the ARMLS Pending Price Index™.

April 2010 Home Sales Report

2010-05-21T19:22:00.002-07:00

April 2010 Home Sales Report for Maricopa County

Homes are selling, with most of them selling within 60 days if they are priced right. The hottest price range is $100,000 to $140,000.

This 3 BD, 2 BA Gemini home in Fountain Hills is listed for $149,900.

Maricopa County AZ Housing Market Update

2010-05-20T20:02:00.001-07:00

http://eta-az.com/marketupdate.pdf

Housing market updates are sent to us every month courtesy of Maggie Clark with Equity Title Agency, Inc. We are passing the information on to you.

In general - sales of Maricopa County single-family homes in April were 40% REO (Lender owned), 22% short sales, and 37% normal sales.

Total home sales for the month of April were up 5% over March. Current housing inventory is down from the previous month

Months of supply of housing by area are as follows:

Awhatukee 5.1
Apache Junction 4.2
Buckeye 3.1
Cave Creek 8.1

Goodyear, Litchfield Park and Avondale 3.4

Phoenix - Central Corridor 7.9

Fountain Hills 6.2

Glendale and Peoria 3.4

East Valley 4.1

Northwest Valley 3.9

Paradise Valley 16.3

Scottsdale 7.5

Valleywide 4.6

Luxury Homes 26.8

The supply of homes for sale has been steadily decreasing during the past few years. A 6 month supply of homes is considered a balanced market. Less than 6 months is considered a seller's market, and more than 6 months is considered a buyer's market.

Scottsdale Real Estate

June 2011 Housing Market Reports

Are Prices Going Up or Down?

July 2 - Market Summary for the Beginning of July

Monthly Average $/SF Overtakes the Annual Average

Market Summary for the Beginning of May

Increase in Home Sales

Market Summary for the Beginning of April

Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround

Real estate price declines overshooting fundamentals?

The Case for Sunbelt Real Estate

Market Summary for the Beginning of 2011

Perfect Eagle Mountain Golf Villa! See Virtual Tour!

Have Down Payment, but Stuck in Appraisal Hell

Mortgage Rates Seen Rising to 5.1% in 2011

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Economists Say Housing at Bottom

Maricopa County AZ Housing Market Update

A Dream House After All

Finance Your Home Purchase

5 Tips for Deciphering Your Home Loan’s Good-faith Estimate

7 Homeowner Tax Advantages

4 Tips to Determine How Much Mortgage You Can Afford

7 Tips for Improving Your Credit

Find the Home Loan that Fits Your Needs

Homes Will Sell if Priced Right; Foreclosures Have Impact

Jumbo Loans Are Available

New "Voice of Real Estate"

April 2010 Home Sales Report

Maricopa County AZ Housing Market Update