Monthly Average $/SF Overtakes the Annual Average

June 23, 2011 - Monthly Average $/SF Overtakes the Annual Average

When a market is falling the monthly average $/SF for sales transactions is consistently lower than the annual average $/SF. When this ceases to be true we have a signal of a market that is attempting to turn round. On June 23 we see a monthly average of $83.85 and an annual average of $83.74. The difference is only slight but like the olive leaf carried by Noah's dove, this is a promising sign that price declines have abated.

We can certainly say that pricing for sales closed between May 23 and June 22, 2011 was on average higher, on a price per sq. ft. basis, than sales between June 23 2010 and June 22, 2011. We saw a similar thing occur in November 2009 confirming price rises that unfortunately did not hold once the tax credit ran out. This signal turned negative again in July 2010 and has stayed negative until the last three days.

If market pricing continues to improve this positive advantage for the short term average over the long term average will likely hold. Stock traders will recognize this kind of signal from their market. For stocks prices turn round frequently, but for residential real estate these signals tend to stay either positive or negative for months if not years.

From Cromford Report